Oil and Gas Supplies Could Take Months to Return to Normal After Iran Deal

Jun 15, 2026

An agreement to end the Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz will not immediately solve high energy prices. Experts say it will take months for supplies to normalize due to stranded tankers, the slow process of restarting "shut-in" production, and security concerns. While Saudi Arabia and the UAE may recover quickly, countries like Iraq could take up to a year to restore normal oil output.

Iran deal announcement

▪An agreement was announced on Sunday to end the Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
▪The deal is expected to address high oil and gasoline prices, but the effects will not be immediate.

Strait of Hormuz reopening timeline

▪Energy experts predict it will likely take months for energy companies to resume normal operations and meet global demand.
▪The slow pace of shipping and refining crude oil, along with security doubts, will delay the impact of the strait's reopening.
▪Before the war, about a fifth of the world's oil and gasoline supplies traveled through the Strait of Hormuz.

Stranded oil tanker logistics

▪Ships loaded with crude oil have been stranded in the Persian Gulf for more than three months.
▪It takes months for oil tankers to travel from the strait, deliver crude to a refinery, and for the product to reach its final destination.
▪Before new tankers can enter the Strait of Hormuz to be loaded, the currently stranded ships will have to exit.

Production restart challenges

▪Some Middle Eastern producers paused oil extraction, a process known as a "shut-in," after running out of storage space.
▪According to Daniel Sternoff of Columbia University, producers will not restart operations until they are confident a ceasefire will last more than 30 or 60 days.
▪Restarting "shut-in" oil extraction operations can be a slow process.

Regional recovery variations

▪Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates may resume production quickly because they have alternate pipelines or routes.
▪Alan Gelder of Wood Mackenzie predicts it may take about a year for Iraq to return to normal production due to a larger "shut-in" and more difficult fields.

Investment capital restart delays

▪Investment in the energy system, which can take years to yield results, came to a halt after the Strait of Hormuz's closure.
▪According to Alan Gelder of Wood Mackenzie, it will take time for investment capital in the energy system to restart.