New polls show California Proposition 40 billionaire tax on track to fail

Oct 26, 2026

New polling shows California's Proposition 40, a proposed 5% one-time tax on billionaire wealth, is falling behind ahead of the November 2026 election. Surveys from PPIC and SurveyUSA place support at 46% and 44%, respectively. The decline follows over $429 million in opposition campaign spending funded largely by tech executives, as well as the promotion of competing 'poison pill' ballot measures, Propositions 41 and 42. Despite backing from six Nobel laureate economists, 70% of surveyed tax scholars oppose the measure, while high-profile Democrats including Governor Gavin Newsom warn of capital flight.

Polling on Proposition 40

▪Support for California Proposition 40 among Bay Area voters fell to 49% in favor and 49% opposed in October 2026, down 9 percentage points from September 2026.
▪A Public Policy Institute of California poll released on October 27, 2026 showed California Proposition 40 on track to fail, with 46% of likely voters supporting the billionaire tax measure.
▪A SurveyUSA poll conducted October 19–24, 2026 showed support for California Proposition 40 at 44%, down from an 8-point lead in September 2026.

Opponents' campaign funding against Proposition 40

▪Campaign spending against California Proposition 40 surpassed $429 million, heavily funded by tech executives opposing the billionaire wealth tax.
▪Venture capitalist John Doerr and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt each donated over $40 million to the Building a Better California political action committee.

Competing ballot measures

▪Google co-founder Sergey Brin contributed over $100 million to the Building a Better California PAC, which spent over $180 million promoting Propositions 41 and 42.
▪Opponents of California Proposition 40 funded two competing ballot measures, Proposition 41 and Proposition 42, designed to nullify Proposition 40 if either receives more votes.
▪California Proposition 42 would prohibit state wealth taxes on personal property and ban retroactive taxation, making Proposition 40 unenforceable.

Political leaders' positions on Proposition 40

▪California Governor Gavin Newsom and gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra publicly opposed California Proposition 40 over capital flight risks, with Newsom endorsing Proposition 42.
▪Progressive Democratic lawmakers, including Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Ro Khanna, publicly endorsed California Proposition 40.

Tech executives' responses to Proposition 40

▪Meta's board restructured Mark Zuckerberg's stock holdings to permit share sales for tax payments without reducing his voting power amid potential relocation concerns.
▪Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang publicly stated on CBS Sunday Morning that paying California's proposed billionaire wealth tax would be a privilege.

Billionaire departures from California

▪Seven billionaires representing 30% of California's total billionaire wealth relocated out of the state prior to January 1, 2026 following news of California Proposition 40.
▪Google co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page, along with Peter Thiel and Travis Kalanick, moved business interests or personal residences out of California ahead of Proposition 40.

Stanford study on Proposition 40 fiscal impact

▪A Stanford University study by Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh estimated that lost income tax revenue from departing billionaires could cost California $38.9 billion in net present value.
▪The Stanford University study concluded that California's proposed billionaire tax would initially raise only around $30 billion before accounting for lost income tax revenue.

Revenue projections for Proposition 40

▪Economists Jasper Boll, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman estimated that California's billionaires would owe $104 billion if Proposition 40 passes.
▪Proponents estimate California Proposition 40's 5% wealth tax could raise $100 billion to $110 billion to replace reduced federal Medicaid funding.

Academic endorsements and surveys on Proposition 40

▪UNC professor Jeff Hoopes initiated his survey of tax experts in response to the September 2026 open letter from six Nobel Prize-winning economists.
▪Six Nobel Prize-winning economists, including Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz, signed an open letter endorsing California Proposition 40 as a landmark wealth tax.

Tax law academics and Proposition 40

▪UNC professor Jeff Hoopes' survey of 105 National Tax Association members found 69.5% opposed California Proposition 40, including 85% of accountants and 71% of economists, while 60% of tax lawyers favored it.
▪Tax law professors Brian Galle, David Gamage, and Darien Shanske served as three of the principal drafters of California Proposition 40.

California Billionaire population and wealth growth

▪Between January and October 2026, California gained 20 additional billionaires while the total wealth of the state's billionaires grew by $400 billion.
▪As of October 2026, California was home to 260 billionaires holding nearly $2.5 trillion in total wealth according to the Forbes billionaires list.

Income tax rates of top American billionaires

▪ProPublica reporting revealed that top American billionaires, including Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett, and Michael Bloomberg, paid virtually no income tax.
▪A working paper found that the 384 richest American oligarchs paid an average effective economic income tax rate of 24% in 2025, compared to 30% for average taxpayers.

State estate taxes and billionaire migration

▪Following the 2001 federal elimination of state estate tax credits, over 20% of Forbes 400 billionaires living in estate-tax states relocated to non-estate-tax states by 2010.
▪Economists Enrico Moretti and Daniel Wilson estimated that states with estate taxes lost 23 of 72 Forbes 400 billionaires between 2001 and 2017.