Final pre-midterm polling by The New York Times and Siena University shows Democratic candidates leading in seven key Senate battlegrounds, including traditional Republican strongholds Texas and Kansas. Surging Democratic strength is fueled by widespread economic discontent and President Donald Trump's low approval rating, which stands at 38% across the polled states. However, pollsters warn nonresponse bias among Republican voters creates persistent uncertainty about final results.
Democratic Senate polling leads
- ▪New York Times/Siena polls conducted Oct 23 to Nov 1, 2026 showed Democratic candidates leading Republican rivals in seven battleground Senate races: Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska, and Iowa
- ▪In the Maine Senate race, Democrat Troy Jackson led Republican incumbent Senator Susan Collins 51% to 45% in the New York Times/Siena poll conducted Oct 23 to Nov 1, 2026
- ▪In the Ohio Senate race, Democrat Sherrod Brown led Republican Jon Husted 49% to 44% in the New York Times/Siena poll conducted Oct 23 to Nov 1, 2026
- ▪In the Alaska Senate race, Democrat Mary Peltola led Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan by two points, 48% to 46%, in the New York Times/Siena poll conducted Oct 23 to Nov 1, 2026
- ▪In the Michigan Senate race, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed led Republican candidate Mike Rogers by 11 percentage points in the New York Times/Siena poll conducted Oct 23 to Nov 1, 2026
- ▪In the Texas Senate race, Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton by seven points, 50% to 43%, in the New York Times/Siena poll conducted Oct 23 to Nov 1, 2026
Trump approval rating decline
- ▪President Donald Trump's overall job approval rating stood at 38% across seven battleground Senate states in the New York Times/Siena polls conducted Oct 23 to Nov 1, 2026
- ▪President Donald Trump's national approval rating registered at 36% with 61% disapproving in the New York Times poll tracker as of November 1, 2026
- ▪In Ohio, the share of Republicans who strongly approved of President Donald Trump dropped from 63% in June 2026 to 51% in late October 2026
Economic voter concerns
- ▪New York Times/Siena polling conducted Oct 23 to Nov 1, 2026 showed Democrats held a nine-point advantage over Republicans on handling cost-of-living issues across seven Senate battlegrounds
- ▪Fewer than three in ten likely voters supported President Donald Trump's management of cost-of-living issues in the national New York Times/Siena poll released November 1, 2026
- ▪Rising diesel fuel prices following the American military attack on Iran and federal decisions dropping tariffs on imported beef generated economic frustration among Kansas agricultural voters ahead of the 2026 midterms
Polling accuracy questions
- ▪In a Washington Post poll of the Kansas Senate race, registered Democrats cooperated with pollsters at more than three times the rate of registered Republicans
- ▪Registered white Democrats were approximately 30 percent more likely to respond to the final New York Times/Siena battleground polls conducted Oct. 23-Nov. 1, 2026 than registered white Republicans
Michigan endorsement controversy
- ▪Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed maintained a 96-2 lead among voters who voted for Kamala Harris in the New York Times/Siena Michigan Senate survey conducted Oct 23 to Nov 1, 2026
- ▪Democratic Representative Haley Stevens endorsed Republican candidate Mike Rogers on November 1, 2026 in the Michigan Senate race against Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed
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