ASML raises full-year sales forecast for second time on AI chip demand

ASML, the sole producer of crucial EUV chip-making machines, raised its full-year sales forecast for the second time, now expecting €43-€45 billion. The upgrade is driven by "extremely strong" demand for AI chips, which has prompted customers like TSMC to accelerate capacity expansions. ASML plans to increase its own production capacity by 30% in response, despite industry-wide pressures and export controls.

ASML financial guidance upgrade

• ▪In its second quarter, ASML reported net sales of €9.3 billion and a net profit of €2.9 billion, exceeding LSEG consensus estimates
• ▪The company's previous forecast projected annual net sales between €36 billion and €40 billion, with a gross margin of 51% to 53%
• ▪ASML now expects full-year sales between €43 billion ($49 billion) and €45 billion, with a gross margin of 54% to 56%
• ▪ASML raised its full-year sales forecast for the second time in 2026, citing strong demand for AI chips

AI chip demand drivers

• ▪UBS analysts noted on July 10 that AI-driven demand for leading-edge chip production is expected to strengthen ASML's performance in the second half of the year
• ▪ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet stated that order intake remained "extremely strong" in the first half of 2026
• ▪ASML is the world's only manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are used to produce the most advanced semiconductors

Customer capacity expansion

• ▪ASML plans to increase its 2026 low NA EUV capacity by 30% and its 2026 Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) immersion capacity by 30%
• ▪Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), a major ASML customer, reported a 68% increase in June sales
• ▪TSMC is planning to build two new advanced chip packaging plants in southern Taiwan's Chiayi Science Park
• ▪According to CEO Christophe Fouquet, ASML's customers are accelerating their capacity expansion plans

Semiconductor industry pressures

• ▪Semiconductor stocks have been under pressure due to investor questions about whether high levels of AI-driven capital spending can be sustained
• ▪ASML faces tightening export controls on its advanced chip-making equipment