Latvian PM Kulbergs' party leads in parliamentary election

Oct 3, 2026

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs and his centrist United List party are poised for a decisive victory in the October 3, 2026 parliamentary election, securing 35.6% of the vote according to exit polls. The election was heavily overshadowed by security concerns regarding Russian hybrid threats and airspace incursions. While Kulbergs seeks to maintain strong pro-Ukraine policies and high defense spending, opposition parties like Sovereign Power and Latvia First gained ground by focusing on cost-of-living issues and opposing aid to Ukraine, setting up complex coalition talks.

Exit poll results for major parties

▪The overtly pro-Russian Sovereign Power party, led by Julia Stepanenko, received 10.8% of the vote in Latvia's October 3, 2026 parliamentary election exit poll
▪The populist Latvia First party, led by businessman Ainars Slesers, secured 11.3% of the vote in the October 3, 2026 exit poll, tying for second place with the left-leaning Progressives party
▪Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' centrist United List won 35.6% in the October 3, 2026 parliamentary election exit poll by LSM, which, if confirmed, would represent the best performance of any single party since the nation regained independence in 1991

Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' political position and background

▪Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs stated that he hopes to remain prime minister but would need to form a coalition with other parties, explicitly ruling out governing with the Latvia First party
▪Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs campaigned on maintaining Latvia's defense spending at 5% of gross domestic product and expanding the country's anti-drone capabilities
▪Andris Kulbergs originally came to power in May 2026 after the previous governing coalition collapsed over its handling of stray Ukrainian military drones that flew undetected into Latvian airspace

Sovereign Power's election campaign

▪Opinion polls preceding the October 3, 2026 election placed the overtly pro-Russian Sovereign Power party closely behind Andris Kulbergs' leading United List
▪Sovereign Power party leader Julia Stepanenko argued that Latvia should halt financial aid to Ukraine, focus on domestic cost-of-living issues, and push for peace talks to resolve the war

Structure and rules of the election

▪To win seats in the Latvian parliament, political parties must cross a minimum threshold of 5% of the total vote
▪Latvian voters cast ballots on October 3, 2026, to elect the 100 members of the single-chamber Saeima for a four-year term, with nearly 1.56 million citizens eligible to vote

Security concerns and airspace protection during the election

▪Germany deployed four Eurofighter jets to Latvia for approximately one week to reinforce NATO's protection of Latvian airspace during Latvia's October 3, 2026 parliamentary election period
▪The Latvian State Security Service reported in the week preceding Latvia's October 3, 2026 parliamentary election that it had not detected any significant or systematic efforts by Russia to influence the vote
▪Latvia faced heightened security concerns during the October 3, 2026 election due to official warnings of potential Russian aggression, sabotage, cyberattacks, and airspace incursions