UK Financial Conduct Authority considers easing ban on retail prediction markets

Sep 7, 2026

The UK Financial Conduct Authority is holding talks with trading platforms about potentially easing its 2019 ban on retail financial prediction markets. The regulatory rethink comes as British consumers increasingly bypass domestic restrictions using VPNs to access overseas platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, where combined monthly volumes surged to $24 billion by April 2026. However, any policy change faces complex hurdles, including a jurisdictional split with the Gambling Commission.

FCA prediction market discussions

▪The UK Financial Conduct Authority has held discussions with trading platforms about potentially easing its restriction on retail access to financial prediction markets.
▪As of September 7, 2026, the Financial Conduct Authority has not announced any formal policy reversal, proposed rule, or rulemaking timetable regarding prediction markets.

Binary options retail ban

▪The Financial Conduct Authority's March 2026 perimeter report maintained that the binary options ban remains appropriate due to the speculative nature of the contracts and consumer harm risks.
▪The Financial Conduct Authority permanently banned the sale of retail binary options in April 2019, citing high risks of consumer losses and inherent conflicts of interest.

Dual regulator jurisdiction split

▪The Financial Conduct Authority regulates prediction products tied to financial and certain climate events, while sports, political, and other non-financial contracts fall under the UK Gambling Commission.
▪The UK Gambling Commission stated in February 2026 that commercial prediction platforms dealing in non-financial events would likely require a betting intermediary license.

Overseas platform VPN access

▪British consumers are bypassing geographic restrictions to trade on overseas prediction platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, by using virtual private networks.
▪Industry representatives presented evidence to UK officials that millions of British citizens are actively using overseas prediction platforms despite domestic restrictions.

Consumer protection gaps

▪The UK Gambling Commission warned unlicensed prediction market operators that targeting or transacting with consumers in Great Britain can constitute a criminal offence.
▪British consumers accessing overseas prediction platforms lack domestic regulatory protections, including access to the Financial Ombudsman Service and the Financial Services Compensation Scheme.

Prediction market volume growth

▪Bernstein estimates that total global prediction market trading volume will rise from $51 billion in 2025 to $240 billion in 2026.
▪Combined monthly transaction volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket surged from under $5 billion in September 2025 to approximately $24 billion by April 2026.