Rep. Don Davis introduces bill banning candidates from trading prediction markets on their own elections

Representative Don Davis introduced the No Betting on Your Own Race Act on October 5, 2026, to ban federal candidates, their spouses, and campaign committees from trading prediction market contracts on their own elections. The bill imposes a minimum $10,000 fine per violation. The move follows a controversy in Davis' own North Carolina district, where his Republican opponent, Laurie Buckhout, was suspended by Kalshi in August 2026 for trading on her race.

Introduction of the legislation

• ▪U.S. Representative Don Davis introduced the No Betting on Your Own Race Act on October 5, 2026, to prohibit federal candidates from trading prediction market contracts tied to their own elections.
• ▪The No Betting on Your Own Race Act was introduced during a pro forma session of the House of Representatives, meaning Congress is not expected to vote on it before the November 3, 2026, midterm elections.

Scope of the trading ban

• ▪If an individual holds an election contract prior to becoming a federal candidate, the No Betting on Your Own Race Act allows them to dispose of the position within the platform's minimum divestment period.
• ▪The No Betting on Your Own Race Act covers prediction contracts based on whether a candidate wins, remains in a race, or achieves a specific vote share, margin, or placement in caucuses, primaries, conventions, or general elections.
• ▪The No Betting on Your Own Race Act extends its trading prohibition to a candidate's spouse, dependent children, and authorized campaign committees.

Penalties for violating the ban

• ▪Under the No Betting on Your Own Race Act, violators would face a civil penalty of $10,000 per violation or three times the net financial gain attributable to the trade, whichever is greater.
• ▪The civil penalty structure in the No Betting on Your Own Race Act also applies to indirect trading, such as directing another person to trade or knowingly providing funds for someone else to acquire the interest.

Administrative and notification requirements

• ▪Under the proposed legislation, candidates must be informed about the prediction market trading restrictions at the time they file for federal office.
• ▪The No Betting on Your Own Race Act requires the Federal Election Commission to maintain a free, publicly available, machine-readable list of federal candidates, updated at least weekly.

Prediction market platforms

• ▪The No Betting on Your Own Race Act shields prediction market platforms and brokers from liability for facilitating prohibited transactions or taking good-faith measures to close accounts, void trades, or report suspected violations.
• ▪In March 2026, prediction market platform Kalshi began screening political candidates out of their own election markets.

Laurie Buckhout's prediction market trades

• ▪In August 2026, prediction market platform Kalshi suspended Laurie Buckhout, the Republican candidate challenging Representative Don Davis in North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, for three years and fined her $2,589.96.
• ▪Laurie Buckhout purchased less than $1,000 worth of contracts tied to her own congressional race on Kalshi, later characterizing the trades as a "dumb mistake" and cooperating with the platform's investigation.
• ▪Representative Don Davis publicly characterized Laurie Buckhout's prediction market trades as a "disqualifying breach of public trust" in a social media post following her suspension in August 2026.

Debatable claims

• ▪Trading prediction market contracts on one's own election is a disqualifying breach of public trust
• ▪Congress should ban federal candidates from trading prediction markets on their own elections
• ▪Banning candidates' family members from trading election prediction markets is an overreach
• ▪Trading prediction markets on political outcomes is an ethical conflict of interest for members of Congress