New polls show Democrats leading or competitive in traditionally red Texas races

A series of new polls reveals unexpected Democratic leads and highly competitive matchups in traditionally red Texas. In the gubernatorial race, a ReconMR/Texas Pulse poll shows Democrat Gina Hinojosa leading incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott by 4 points, 49% to 45%. Meanwhile, Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in multiple surveys. These shifts come amid rising economic pressures in South Texas, a backlash to aggressive immigration enforcement, and a broader national trend of Republican vulnerability in historically safe states like Kansas and Alaska.

Texas Democratic polling gains

• ▪An Emerson College poll showed Democratic U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by 1 percentage point in Texas
• ▪A ReconMR/Texas Pulse poll released on September 17, 2026, showed Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa leading incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott by 4 percentage points, 49% to 45%, in the Texas gubernatorial race
• ▪A ReconMR and Siena Research Institute poll projected Democratic candidate James Talarico leading Republican incumbent Ken Paxton by 6 percentage points, 49% to 43%, in the Texas U.S. Senate race
• ▪A September 15, 2026, Mason-Dixon poll showed Greg Abbott leading Gina Hinojosa 48% to 41%, while a September 13, 2026, SoCal Strategies poll showed Abbott leading 52% to 44%
• ▪Texas Governor Greg Abbott's campaign reported having nearly $70 million in cash on hand earlier in the summer of 2026, compared to Gina Hinojosa's $3 million

Economic pressures in Texas construction

• ▪Tariffs have driven up the prices of timber and other building materials in the South Texas construction industry, according to South Texas Builders Alliance chairman Ronnie Cavazos
• ▪Inflation, higher interest rates on unfinished lots, and a historic spike in diesel fuel have driven up overall costs for South Texas homebuilders

Immigration enforcement impact on workforce

• ▪Immigration enforcement raids on work sites have created a chill among the South Texas construction workforce near Harlingen, Texas, according to South Texas Builders Alliance chairman Ronnie Cavazos, due to fears of indefinite detention
• ▪Florida Republican Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar released a campaign advertisement stating that some of President Donald Trump's immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far

Republican electoral vulnerability nationwide

• ▪An Emerson College poll in Kansas showed Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton leading incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall 45% to 43% in the U.S. Senate race
• ▪A Carolina Journal poll in North Carolina showed former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper leading former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley by 15 percentage points in the U.S. Senate race
• ▪An AARP poll in Alaska showed Democratic candidate Mary Peltola leading incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan 46% to 41% in the U.S. Senate race

Texas Latino voter shifts

• ▪A Texas Politics Project/University of Texas poll found that 51% of Latino voters in Texas view Donald Trump unfavorably, compared to 41% who view him favorably
• ▪Tejano music star Bobby Pulido entered politics to run as a Democrat against Republican Representative Mónica de la Cruz in South Texas

Debatable claims

• ▪Texas is on track to become a competitive swing state
• ▪The Trump administration's workplace immigration raids have gone too far