Cook Political Report shifts 19 House races toward Democrats

On October 23, 2026, the Cook Political Report shifted 19 House races toward Democrats, projecting gains between 12 and 22 seats in the upcoming midterm elections. Analyst Erin Covey noted that Republicans' path to retaining their slim 218-seat majority has largely evaporated, as Democrats now lead or lean favored in 220 districts. Driven by low job approval ratings for President Donald Trump around economic affordability and inflation, major Republican political action committees are pulling advertising funds from vulnerable districts.

Cook Political Report overall seat projections

• ▪The Cook Political Report estimates that Democrats will flip between 12 and 22 U.S. House seats in the November 2026 midterm elections
• ▪Cook Political Report analyst Erin Covey stated on October 23, 2026 that Democrats are favored outright in the 218 seats required for a U.S. House majority
• ▪The Cook Political Report shifted 19 U.S. House races toward Democrats in its ratings update on October 23, 2026
• ▪The Cook Political Report rates 220 U.S. House seats as solid, likely, or lean Democrat and 198 seats as solid, likely, or lean Republican

Specific House race rating shifts

• ▪The Cook Political Report moved six U.S. House districts from toss-up status to lean Democrat on October 23, 2026, four of which are currently held by Republican incumbents
• ▪Representative Lauren Boebert's U.S. House race in Colorado's 4th Congressional District shifted from solid Republican to lean Republican in the October 23, 2026 Cook update
• ▪Open U.S. House seats in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District and Texas's 35th Congressional District moved from lean Republican to toss-up status in the Cook Political Report's October 23, 2026 update
• ▪Races involving Republican incumbent Representatives Juan Ciscomani, Gabe Evans, Jen Kiggans, and Derrick Van Orden shifted from toss-up to lean Democrat in the Cook Political Report's October 23, 2026 update

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee response

• ▪The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee launched a $17 million fundraising initiative to fund advertising campaigns across additional Republican-held U.S. House districts
• ▪Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee communications director Courtney Rice stated that the Cook Political Report's race rating changes reflect voter resonance with Democratic candidates' focus on lowering costs

Congressional Leadership Fund spending shifts

• ▪The Congressional Leadership Fund increased its advertising investment in 16 U.S. House districts while canceling planned advertising in four others
• ▪The pro-Republican super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund canceled planned ad spending totaling $13.3 million across four U.S. House districts, including Iowa's 1st and New Jersey's 7th

Current House seat balance

• ▪Democrats need a net gain of four U.S. House seats in the 2026 midterm elections to retake the majority from Republicans, who hold 218 seats
• ▪Democrats currently hold 214 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives while Republicans hold 218 seats

Kevin McCarthy midterm predictions

• ▪Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy noted that the party holding the White House has lost U.S. House seats in every off-year election over the last 100 years
• ▪Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy stated to Bloomberg News that he expects Democrats to win back the House majority in the 2026 midterms

Donald Trump's job approval ratings

• ▪Public dissatisfaction with affordability, inflation, and high gas prices stemming from the Iran war has driven down President Donald Trump's approval ratings ahead of the midterms
• ▪President Donald Trump's job approval rating dropped to 36 percent in a New York Times and Siena College poll conducted October 12 to 19, 2026
• ▪In a CNN and SSRS poll released in October 2026, President Donald Trump's job approval rating reached a low of 32 percent

Historical midterm election trends

• ▪During President Donald Trump's first term in the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats flipped more than 40 U.S. House seats
• ▪The party occupying the White House has historically lost an average of about 25 U.S. House seats during off-year midterm elections
• ▪In the 2006 midterm elections, Democrats gained U.S. House seats during the presidency of George W. Bush