Senate Republicans face expanded Democratic opportunities as Trump backlash grows

Senate Republicans face an uphill battle to maintain their 53-47 majority as the Cook Political Report expands the number of vulnerable GOP-held seats from three to six, adding Texas, Iowa, and Alaska to the toss-up list. Amid a mired war in Iran and high inflation, President Donald Trump's approval rating has sunk to 33%. In response, Trump is launching 'Trumpapalooza' in Dallas to energize low-propensity voters, though key battleground candidates like Senator Susan Collins plan to skip the event.

Republican Senate seat vulnerabilities

• ▪The Cook Political Report has classified six Republican-held Senate seats as toss-ups or leaning Democratic as of September 2026, up from three in May 2026
• ▪Senate Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged in September 2026 that Republicans face a highly competitive environment to maintain control of the Senate
• ▪The Republican-held Senate seats in Texas, Iowa, and Alaska shifted to toss-up status in September 2026, joining North Carolina, Maine, and Ohio

Trump approval ratings decline

• ▪President Donald Trump's job approval rating was recorded at 33% for three consecutive weeks in a September 2026 Reuters/Ipsos poll
• ▪Voters are expressing growing disapproval of President Donald Trump's performance regarding inflation, tariffs, and the ongoing war in Iran

Trumpapalooza midterm convention

• ▪The Dallas midterm convention will compete for television viewership with the opening nights of the NFL regular season on September 9 and 10, 2026
• ▪Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine and Representative Tom Barrett of Michigan are among the battleground candidates skipping the Dallas midterm convention
• ▪President Donald Trump and the Republican Party will host 'Trumpapalooza,' the party's first-ever midterm convention, in Dallas starting September 9, 2026

Democratic voter enthusiasm surge

• ▪A Gallup poll found that Democrats hold a 10-point party identification advantage over Republicans, their largest lead since approximately 2008
• ▪An Economist/YouGov poll found that 91% of registered Democrats definitely plan to vote in the midterms, compared to 79% of registered Republicans

Historical Republican polling undercount

• ▪A CNN analysis by Harry Enten indicates that if current polls underestimate Republicans at 2024 levels, Republicans could retain control of both congressional chambers
• ▪An analysis by Echelon pollster Patrick Ruffini found that 3,312 polls underestimated Republican candidates by an average of 3.7 percentage points over four election cycles

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