CryptoQuant Warns Bitcoin's April Rally Was 'Speculative' as Spot Demand Remains Weak

Bitcoin surged approximately 20% in April 2025, climbing from around $66,000 to as high as $79,000, but analytics firm CryptoQuant warns the rally was driven by speculative perpetual futures demand rather than genuine spot market accumulation. CryptoQuant's analysis shows spot demand remained negative throughout April while futures demand grew, creating a divergence historically associated with unsustainable price gains during bear markets. The firm's Bull Score Index declined from 50 to 40, returning to bearish territory and signaling deteriorating onchain fundamentals. CryptoQuant compares the current demand pattern to conditions seen at the start of the 2022 bear market and warns of meaningful downside risk without a reversal in spot demand to support any move back toward the $79,000 peak.

Bitcoin's April Rally Driven by Futures Rather Than Spot Demand

• ▪Bitcoin rose about 20% in April, from around $66,000 to as high as $79,000
• ▪Spot demand for Bitcoin remained negative throughout April 2025 according to CryptoQuant
• ▪Bitcoin's April 2025 rally was driven mainly by growth in perpetual futures demand according to CryptoQuant
• ▪Perpetual futures demand was the sole driver of Bitcoin's April price rally while spot apparent demand contracted throughout
• ▪The divergence between rising futures demand and contracting spot demand suggests Bitcoin's April rally was driven by leverage rather than fresh bitcoin accumulation

Historical Parallels to 2022 Bear Market and Correction Risks

• ▪CryptoQuant stated that without a reversal in apparent demand from negative to positive, rallies back toward the $79,000 local peak will lack the onchain support needed for a sustained breakout
• ▪CryptoQuant stated Bitcoin's current demand pattern driven by perpetual futures is similar to what was seen at the start of the 2022 bear market
• ▪The configuration of rising futures demand alongside contracting spot demand is historically associated with unsustained price gains during bear markets
• ▪CryptoQuant stated Bitcoin's current structure carries meaningful downside risk

CryptoQuant Bull Score Index Signals Deteriorating Fundamentals

• ▪A CryptoQuant Bull Score Index above 50 indicates bullish conditions and below 50 indicates bearish conditions
• ▪The CryptoQuant Bull Score Index declined from 50 to 40 in April 2025
• ▪The CryptoQuant Bull Score Index aggregates multiple onchain and market indicators into a 0–100 scale
• ▪The CryptoQuant Bull Score Index returned to bearish territory below the neutral threshold in April 2025
• ▪A CryptoQuant Bull Score of 40 indicates conditions are getting bearish and places the market in the same range that historically preceded continued price weakness

Perspective of CryptoQuant

• ▪CryptoQuant believes Bitcoin requires a reversal from negative to positive spot demand to sustain moves toward $79,000
• ▪CryptoQuant characterizes Bitcoin's April 2025 rally as speculative rather than fundamentally driven
• ▪CryptoQuant warns that Bitcoin's April 2025 rally carries meaningful downside correction risk

Perspective of Bitcoin perpetual futures traders

• ▪Perpetual futures traders increased their Bitcoin positions sufficiently to drive a 20% price rally in April 2025
• ▪Perpetual futures positioning in Bitcoin created price momentum disconnected from spot market accumulation patterns in April 2025
• ▪Perpetual futures traders' demand for Bitcoin grew throughout April 2025 while spot market participants reduced exposure