Russia accused of using shadow fleet vessels to conduct 18-month drone surveillance campaign targeting European nuclear sites

A report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies reveals that Russia likely orchestrated an 18-month drone surveillance campaign targeting European nuclear and military sites. Operating with substantial impunity, the campaign utilized Russian shadow fleet vessels, such as the HAV Dolphin and Boracay, to launch low-altitude drones. The operations targeted sensitive NATO facilities, including RAF Lakenheath in the UK and France's Île Longue submarine base, exposing critical gaps in European air defenses designed for conventional threats.

Russian drone surveillance campaign

• ▪The International Institute for Strategic Studies published a report concluding that the Kremlin orchestrated a major 18-month drone surveillance campaign over European nuclear and military sites
• ▪The drone surveillance campaign targeted sensitive nuclear and military sites in the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, and Denmark
• ▪The drone surveillance campaign analyzed 144 suspected incidents across more than a dozen European countries between late 2024 and early 2026

Shadow fleet drone launches

• ▪French commandos boarded the shadow fleet tanker Boracay in September 2025, revealing two Russian nationals employed by the Moran Security Group on board
• ▪The International Institute for Strategic Studies concluded that Russia likely used its shadow fleet vessels as mobile platforms to launch and recover surveillance drones
• ▪The Russian-crewed cargo vessel HAV Dolphin and the Seasons I tanker were identified as shadow fleet ships operating near drone sighting locations in the United Kingdom and Germany

European air defense gaps

• ▪The drone campaign operated with substantial impunity, exposing a strategic failure in European and NATO air defenses designed primarily for conventional, high-altitude threats
• ▪European military officials noted that detecting and responding to drones is difficult because they fly low and slow, often appearing on radar as birds or civilian aircraft

NATO military site overflights

• ▪Drones were detected over the Kleine-Brogel airbase in Belgium and the Volkel airbase in the Netherlands, both of which are believed to host American nuclear weapons
• ▪Drones were repeatedly spotted over RAF Lakenheath and RAF Mildenhall in the United Kingdom, where facilities were being prepared to house United States nuclear weapons
• ▪Five drones were detected in December 2025 over France's Île Longue submarine base, which serves as the home port for the country's sea-launched nuclear missile arsenal

Drone attribution challenges

• ▪Sweden is the only nation to have directly blamed Moscow for a specific incursion, involving a military drone flying toward a French aircraft carrier from a Russian spy ship
• ▪European governments and military officials have faced challenges in formally attributing the drone incursions to Russia due to the difficulty of tracing drone origins