Japan’s government and ruling coalition are considering nearly doubling defense spending to between ¥70 trillion and ¥80 trillion ($457 billion to $508 billion) over five years starting in April 2027. Driven by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s initiative to bolster military capabilities, the plan represents a 1.8-fold surge over current allocations. Escalating regional security concerns in East Asia, currency depreciation driving up equipment costs, and drone-focused tactics seen in Ukraine and Iran underpin the proposed expansion.
Proposed increase in five-year defense budget
- ▪Currency depreciation pressures have joined equipment procurement needs in driving up Japan's projected five-year defense budget estimates toward the ¥70 trillion to ¥80 trillion range.
- ▪The final defense budget figure remains subject to debate between the Japanese government and coalition partners as the budget is compiled toward year-end alongside revisions to security documents.
- ▪The proposed defense allocation represents an increase of about 1.8 times over the roughly ¥43 trillion allocated under Japan's current five-year plan that began in fiscal 2023.
- ▪A source familiar with Japan's defense budget discussions questioned whether a mid-to-late ¥70 trillion sum would be sufficient given the security environment in East Asia.
- ▪The Japanese government and ruling coalition are considering setting defense spending for the five years starting April 2027 at ¥70 trillion to ¥80 trillion ($457 billion to $508 billion).
Role and procurement of drone technology
- ▪Japanese officials in September 2026 cited drone combat applications seen in conflicts in Ukraine and Iran as background for structuring Japan's defense around intercepting long-range attacks.
- ▪Japan's new five-year defense spending plan is expected to fund procurement of large numbers of drones.
- ▪Japan is exploring structuring defense operations around intercepting long-range attacks by deploying drones, alongside prioritizing budget allocations for AI and space technologies.
Development of long-range missile capabilities
- ▪Japan's current five-year defense program focuses spending on long-range missiles for counterstrike capabilities, as well as ammunition and spare parts for military equipment.
- ▪The Japanese Ministry of Defense has been developing domestically manufactured long-range missiles to adapt to modern warfare.
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