Galaxy Digital Launches Institutional OTC Prediction Markets Desk With $10 Million CLARITY Act Trade

Jun 2, 2026

Galaxy Digital has launched an over-the-counter prediction markets desk for institutional investors, executing a $10 million inaugural trade with hedge fund Arca. The trade is a bet on the passage of the U.S. CLARITY Act, a key piece of crypto legislation. The move reflects a broader institutionalization of the sector, addressing liquidity and privacy issues on retail platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi and attracting other major firms like Wintermute and BitGo.

Galaxy institutional OTC desk

▪Galaxy Digital has launched an over-the-counter (OTC) prediction markets trading desk for institutional investors.
▪Galaxy Digital's service allows clients to combine prediction market positions with hedges in equities and commodities.
▪Galaxy Digital will act as a principal counterparty, warehousing risk and structuring trades as event swaps under ISDA agreements.

Arca CLARITY Act hedge

▪Galaxy Digital's inaugural transaction was a $10 million trade with crypto hedge fund Arca.
▪Jeff Dorman noted that insufficient liquidity on existing retail platforms makes direct participation difficult for large funds.
▪The trade is a bet on whether the U.S. Digital Asset Market Clarity Act will be passed into law before 2027.
▪Under the contract terms, Arca pays Galaxy Digital if the Clarity Act passes, and Galaxy pays Arca if it fails.
▪Arca's CIO Jeff Dorman stated that prediction markets are an appropriate vehicle for hedging exposure to U.S. crypto regulation.

Institutional infrastructure buildout

▪On June 2, 2026, Polymarket completed its first block trade between crypto broker FalconX and Anera Labs.
▪Other firms building institutional prediction market infrastructure include Wintermute, BitGo, and Jump Trading.

Polymarket volume and valuation

▪In February 2026, Polymarket recorded $7 billion in trading volume.
▪Polymarket is reportedly seeking to raise $400 million in capital at a $15 billion valuation.
▪Polymarket has processed over $62 billion in cumulative notional trading volume.

Kalshi platform growth

▪The $10 million Galaxy-Arca trade was nearly five times the total volume of a similar contract on Kalshi.
▪Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform valued at approximately $22 billion.

CLARITY Act Senate outlook

▪A key provision of the Clarity Act would prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a retail CBDC without explicit Congressional approval.
▪Galaxy Research estimates a 75% probability that the CLARITY Act will pass in 2026.
▪The bill requires 60 votes to pass the Senate, meaning it needs support from at least seven Democrats or independents.
▪The Digital Asset Clarity Act aims to establish a U.S. regulatory framework for digital assets.
▪The Clarity Act passed the House of Representatives in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May 2026 on a 15-9 vote.