Brent crude surges to $118 after Trump vows to keep naval blockade until nuclear deal

Brent crude surged more than 6% to $118 per barrel, its highest level since June 2022, after President Trump told Axios the US naval blockade of Iranian ports would continue until Iran agrees to a nuclear deal. The crisis began February 28 when Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil and gas supplies normally pass, prompting the US counter-blockade. Citigroup warns prices could hit $150 if disruptions continue through June, while the World Bank calls it the largest oil supply shock on record and projects a 24% energy price surge in 2026. The stalemate centers on Iran's demand to impose transit fees on Hormuz shipping, which US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has rejected.

Oil price surge and market volatility

• ▪West Texas Intermediate was up 2.01 per cent to $98.31 per barrel on Tuesday
• ▪Goldman Sachs warned that oil prices could approach $120 a barrel later in 2026 amid a continued stalemate in peace talks between the US and Iran
• ▪Brent crude climbed 2.28 per cent to $110.70 a barrel at 11am UAE time on Tuesday
• ▪Oil prices are trading roughly 50 per cent above pre-conflict levels as of the article's publication
• ▪Goldman Sachs raised its West Texas Intermediate price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 to $83 per barrel

Strait of Hormuz blockade and US-Iran negotiations

• ▪Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz when the war began on February 28
• ▪US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US will not accept Iran retaining control over the Strait of Hormuz

Impact on Middle East energy production and global supply

• ▪The International Energy Agency expects the impact of higher oil prices on gas production to become more pronounced in the latter part of 2026
• ▪The Middle East accounts for almost 30 per cent of global oil output
• ▪Major producers including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Iraq and Kuwait rely on the Strait of Hormuz to export energy

Perspective of Donald Trump administration

• ▪Donald Trump told Axios the naval blockade would remain until Iran agreed to a nuclear deal

Perspective of Iran

• ▪Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz when the war began on February 28

Perspective of Citigroup

• ▪Citigroup warned oil prices could reach $150 if the Hormuz disruption continues through June 2026

Perspective of World Bank

• ▪The World Bank warned the war has triggered the largest oil supply shock on record
• ▪The World Bank projects a 24% surge in energy prices in 2026 due to the conflict