Latvia votes in parliamentary election amid Russia security concerns

Latvia held a pivotal parliamentary election on October 3, 2026, dominated by security concerns over Russian hybrid warfare and airspace incursions. While pro-Ukrainian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs and his centrist United List alliance led the polls, deep political fragmentation and the rise of pro-Russian parties like Sovereign Power, which opposes aid to Ukraine, are expected to make coalition-building exceptionally difficult for the 100-member Saeima.

Details of the parliamentary election

• ▪Latvia held a parliamentary election on October 3, 2026 to elect the 100 members of its unicameral parliament, the Saeima, for a four-year term
• ▪Polling stations in the Latvian parliamentary election opened at 8 a.m. local time and closed at 8 p.m. on October 3, 2026

Kulbergs' campaign positions

• ▪Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs campaigned on a promise of unwavering support to Ukraine and maintaining Latvia's defense spending at 5% of gross domestic product
• ▪Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs ruled out forming a coalition with the Sovereign Power party, calling it a threat to Latvia's security and democracy

Campaigns of opposition parties

• ▪The pro-Russian Sovereign Power party, led by Julia Stepanenko, polled in second place with 9.4% to 14.1% support by pledging to halt aid to Ukraine
• ▪The populist Latvia First party, led by businessman Ainars Slesers, campaigned on bridging ethnic divides and criticized policies prioritizing the Latvian language over Russian in public spaces

Latvia's Russian-Speaking minority

• ▪Daugavpils activist Olga Petkevica joined the Latvia First party in hopes of moving Latvia toward a more pragmatic relationship with Russia
• ▪Pollster Arnis Kaktins stated that ethnic Russians in Latvia, who make up about a third of the population, largely stayed away from Latvia's 2022 election but are showing increased engagement in 2026

Russian security threats in the Baltic region

• ▪Estonia accused Russia of orchestrating an arson attack against a defense company in Tallinn shortly before the October 2026 Latvian elections
• ▪Latvian intelligence warned in June 2026 that Moscow may be preparing to test Poland and the Baltic countries with hybrid attacks, drone incursions, or missile incursions

Stray military drone incidents

• ▪Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs came to power in May 2026 after the previous coalition cabinet led by Evika Silina collapsed over its handling of stray military drone incidents
• ▪Latvian officials blamed Russia for using jamming to divert Ukrainian military drones into Latvian airspace, where several stray drones were shot down by NATO planes

Debatable claims

• ▪Latvia's strict public language requirements unfairly marginalize its Russian-speaking minority
• ▪Russia poses an imminent security threat to Latvia
• ▪Latvia's 5% GDP defense spending target is necessary to counter Russian aggression
• ▪Latvia should halt its military and financial aid to Ukraine