Market manipulation stories

Sep 22, 2026

Bernstein raises prediction market forecast to $10 trillion by 2035 as CFTC warns of manipulation risks

Investment bank Bernstein has increased its prediction market forecast tenfold to $10 trillion in annual trading volume by 2035, up from $410 billion currently. Simultaneously, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued guidance warning that 'mentions' contracts—bets on what public figures might say—present heightened manipulation risks and can only be offered in limited circumstances.

Sep 22, 20265 sources

Sep 7, 2026

Rocket suspends operations after attacker drains $287K through dormant perpetual market manipulation

Cryptocurrency platform Rocket has halted all deposits, withdrawals, and trading after an attacker exploited a dormant perpetual market to manipulate prices and withdraw approximately $287,000 in positive profit and loss from the platform's Bridge.

Sep 7, 20261 source

Aug 31, 2026

George Santos receives lifetime ban from Kalshi for insider trading on State of the Union attendance

Prediction market platform Kalshi permanently banned former Rep. George Santos and fined him $71,356 after determining he made over $17,000 by betting against his own attendance at President Trump's State of the Union address. This marks Kalshi's first-ever lifetime ban.

Aug 31, 20269 sources

George Santos receives lifetime ban from Kalshi for insider trading on own attendance

Prediction market Kalshi permanently banned former Rep. George Santos and fined him over $71,000 after determining he placed bets on whether he would attend the State of the Union address. This is Kalshi's first-ever lifetime ban.

Aug 31, 20269 sources

Aug 20, 2026

CME CEO Terrence Duffy clashes with CFTC and Kalshi executives over prediction market regulation

A heated confrontation erupted at a CFTC committee meeting as CME Group Chairman Terrence Duffy questioned prediction market oversight and singled out Kalshi, sparking a public dispute with CFTC officials and Kalshi's COO over how the rapidly growing sector should be regulated. Duffy raised concerns about manipulation vulnerabilities in prediction markets.

Aug 20, 20264 sources

Aug 1, 2026

Former Rep. George Santos Settles Political Betting Market Manipulation Probe for $35,000

George Santos, the former Republican congressman expelled from the House in 2023, has settled an investigation into unlawful trading related to wagers he placed on prediction market Kalshi, paying $35,000 to resolve the probe.

Aug 1, 20262 sources

May 15, 2026

CME Group and NYSE Parent Push U.S. Regulators to Scrutinize Hyperliquid

CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE parent) are urging U.S. regulators to increase oversight of decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, citing concerns over market manipulation and sanctions exposure. The move represents traditional exchanges seeking regulatory action against DeFi competitors.

May 15, 20262 sources

Apr 24, 2026

US Army Soldier Charged with $400K Insider Trading on Polymarket Using Classified Venezuela Intelligence

Federal prosecutors arrested Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke for allegedly using confidential military intelligence to place over $400,000 in bets on Polymarket regarding Venezuela operations, including the capture of Nicolás Maduro. The soldier allegedly participated in the raid himself and attempted to conceal his betting activity.

Apr 24, 20263 sources

Top claims

▪Bernstein expects growth in financial prediction markets to be driven by new products like Key Performance Indicator (KPI) markets and perpetual futures.
▪Polymarket signed celebrity endorsement deals with LeBron James, Derek Jeter, Eli Manning, Spike Lee, and Alexandra Daddario during the 2026 football season.
▪Kalshi's share of prediction market industry volume rose to approximately 60% by August 2026, up from 35% in 2025.

People involved

Donald Trump

Subtopics

Crypto regulation5 Prediction markets5 Insider trading3 Crypto derivatives1 Crypto enforcement actions1 Crypto market regulation1 Crypto market structure1 Crypto regulatory agencies1 Crypto Sanctions Compliance1 Decentralized exchange (DEX)1 DeFi1 DeFi regulation1 DeFi security1 Military intelligence1 Nicolás Maduro1 Onchain prediction markets1 U.S. domestic politics1 Venezuela1

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