Wall Street research firm Bernstein has raised its 2035 annual prediction market volume forecast tenfold to $10 trillion, driven by expectations that financial asset contracts will unseat sports as the industry's largest sector. This projection comes amid intensifying competition and aggressive celebrity ad campaigns from platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Novig. Concurrently, the CFTC has issued new guidance warning that niche 'mentions' contracts carry heightened manipulation risks.
Bernstein's overall market volume projections
- ▪Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani projected on September 22, 2026, that prediction market trading volume will reach $10 trillion annually by 2035.
- ▪The $10 trillion by 2035 projection replaces Bernstein's April 2026 forecast of $1 trillion in annual trading volume by 2030.
- ▪Bernstein expects prediction market trading volumes to compound at approximately 70% annually from 2025 through 2035.
Bernstein's contract category projections
- ▪Bernstein expects growth in financial prediction markets to be driven by new products like Key Performance Indicator (KPI) markets and perpetual futures.
- ▪Bernstein projects financial asset contracts will grow from 12% of prediction market volume in 2025 to 49% by 2035, unseating sports contracts, which will decline from 61% to 38%.
- ▪Bernstein estimates the total addressable market for financial asset contracts will grow from $700 trillion in 2025 to $900 trillion by 2035.
Kalshi's trading volume growth
- ▪Kalshi's share of prediction market industry volume rose to approximately 60% by August 2026, up from 35% in 2025.
- ▪Commodities trading on Kalshi grew from under $2 million in 2025 to approximately $590 million in 2026 through August, with $410 million traded in August alone.
- ▪Crypto contracts on Kalshi grew from under 5% of its trading volume in January 2026 to nearly 20% by August 2026.
CFTC guidance on mention contracts
- ▪The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued guidance on September 22, 2026, warning that prediction market 'mentions' contracts present a heightened risk of manipulation.
- ▪The Commodity Futures Trading Commission advised exchanges listing mention markets to evaluate factors including the mention market subject's outside obligations, external pressures, and independent verifiability
Celebrity marketing campaigns
- ▪Actress Sydney Sweeney starred in a controversial, highly publicized ad campaign for prediction market platform Novig in September 2026.
- ▪Polymarket signed celebrity endorsement deals with LeBron James, Derek Jeter, Eli Manning, Spike Lee, and Alexandra Daddario during the 2026 football season.
- ▪Kalshi signed endorsement deals with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Timothée Chalamet to compete for customer acquisition during the 2026 football season.
Polymarket operations
- ▪Polymarket features mention markets exclusively on its international exchange, which is not regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
- ▪Polymarket's sports contracts rose to approximately 52% of total volume in 2026 from 39% in 2025, while political contracts fell to 22% from 32%.
Debatable claims
- ▪Prediction markets should be regulated as federal derivatives rather than state gambling
- ▪Prediction markets should ban contracts based on public speech
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