Former Rep. George Santos Settles Political Betting Market Manipulation Probe for $35,000

Aug 1, 2026

Former Representative George Santos has reached a $35,000 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over allegations of market manipulation on the prediction platform Kalshi. The CFTC found that Santos used misleading social media posts about his State of the Union attendance to manipulate contract prices, netting over $17,500 in profits. Santos, who is banned from Kalshi for three years, settled without admitting guilt, while his lawyer blamed weather delays for his absence.

Santos Kalshi betting settlement

▪Former Representative George Santos settled an unlawful trading investigation with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for $35,000 in fines and profits.
▪George Santos was banned from trading on the prediction-market platform Kalshi for three years as part of the settlement.

CFTC market manipulation findings

▪The Commodity Futures Trading Commission found that George Santos engaged in manipulative activity by making material misrepresentations and omissions on social media to influence contract prices.
▪The Commodity Futures Trading Commission stated that George Santos made over $17,500 in profits after social media posts moved contract prices in a favorable direction.

State of Union attendance bets

▪The Commodity Futures Trading Commission investigation focused on bets George Santos placed on a Kalshi market querying who would attend the State of the Union address in February.
▪George Santos posted on social media that he would attend the State of the Union in the gallery, but ultimately did not attend the event.

Weather delay defense claim

▪Joseph Murray, the lawyer for George Santos, stated that George Santos initially intended to attend the address but was delayed by weather and safely adopted a "no" position.
▪Joseph Murray asserted that George Santos had no intent to deceive any person or manipulate any market, and settled the matter without admitting wrongdoing.

Prediction market regulation

▪George Santos posted on X calling Kalshi a predatory platform, demanding its founder be deported, and pledging to advocate to legislate the platform out of existence.
▪Kalshi head of enforcement Robert Denault posted on X that the platform caught George Santos and that he is paying an expensive price.