OPEC+ agrees to raise oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in September, then pause through year-end

Seven core OPEC+ members plan to approve a 188,000 barrel-per-day quota increase for September 2026, completing a phased rollback of 2023 cuts, before pausing hikes through year-end. However, actual exports remain constrained by declining member capacity, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure, and Iranian shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The alliance now faces a review of sustainable capacities ahead of potentially difficult negotiations for 2027 quotas, following the UAE's exit in May 2026.

OPEC+ September production increase

• ▪OPEC+ plans to pause further production increases after September 2026 through the end of the year.
• ▪Seven core OPEC+ members plan to approve a production quota increase of 188,000 barrels per day for September 2026.

Historical production cut reversal

• ▪Between late 2022 and 2023, OPEC+ agreed to cut oil production in three separate rounds, reducing total output by nearly six million barrels per day.
• ▪The September 2026 production increase completes the phased rollback of a 1.65 million barrels per day supply cut originally agreed in 2023.

Strait of Hormuz disruptions

• ▪A brief upswing in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz occurred after a United States-Iran memorandum of understanding was signed in June 2026.
• ▪Geopolitical tensions and conflicts in the Middle East, including the near-paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz orchestrated by Iran, have disrupted oil exports.

Member production capacity constraints

• ▪Many OPEC+ members cannot produce as much oil as their official targets allow due to a decline in production capacity.
• ▪Russian oil production is hovering at around nine million barrels per day, compared with a target of 9.8 million barrels per day, due to Ukrainian drone attacks.

UAE withdrawal from OPEC+

• ▪The United Arab Emirates withdrew from OPEC on May 1, 2026, to serve its national interests and long-term strategic objectives.
• ▪The United Arab Emirates expanded its oil pumping capacity in recent years, making it difficult to justify staying under strict OPEC+ production limits.

Future quota negotiation challenges

• ▪OPEC+ is conducting a review of members' oil production capacity to help determine output baselines for 2027 and future quota allocations.
• ▪OPEC+ faces potentially difficult negotiations over new production quotas starting in 2027 following the September 2026 increase.