Bernstein Projects Prediction Markets to Reach $1 Trillion Annual Volume by 2030

Bernstein analysts project prediction market volumes will surge from $51 billion in 2025 to $1 trillion by 2030, driven by roughly 80% compound annual growth and expanding beyond sports betting into diverse event categories. The firm identifies Robinhood and Coinbase as early distribution leaders, with Robinhood already generating a $350 million annualized revenue run rate and moving to own exchange infrastructure. Polymarket and Kalshi have recorded combined year-to-date volumes of $60 billion in 2026, with industry revenues expected to grow from $400 million in 2025 to $10.8 billion by 2030. Bernstein sees asymmetric upside for Robinhood with a $130 price target, viewing sports betting as an entry point rather than endgame as regulatory clarity and blockchain-based infrastructure enable rapid contract creation and global liquidity.

Projected Growth and Volume Trajectory Through 2030

• ▪Bernstein expects prediction market volumes to reach roughly $1 trillion by 2030.
• ▪Prediction market volumes hit $51 billion in 2025.
• ▪Prediction market volumes are projected to grow at roughly 80% compound annual growth through the end of the decade.
• ▪Polymarket and Kalshi recorded combined year-to-date volumes of $60 billion in 2026.
• ▪Prediction market volumes are on pace to reach about $240 billion in 2026.

Drivers of Prediction Market Expansion

• ▪Blockchain-based tokenization and integration with crypto markets is enabling global liquidity for prediction markets.
• ▪Blockchain-based infrastructure enables rapid creation of new event contracts in prediction markets.
• ▪Increasing regulatory clarity at the federal level is expanding the addressable market for prediction markets.
• ▪Prediction market volumes spiked alongside the 2024 U.S. election.

Market Composition and Revenue Projections

• ▪Bernstein analysts estimate prediction market industry revenues could expand from roughly $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026.
• ▪Sports' share of prediction market volumes is expected to fall to roughly 31% by 2030.
• ▪Bernstein analysts estimate prediction market industry revenues could reach about $10.8 billion by 2030 at current take rates.
• ▪Sports currently accounts for about 62% of prediction market volumes.

Key Players and Competitive Positioning

• ▪Coinbase entered prediction markets via Kalshi with nationwide access to more than 1,000 contracts.

Perspective of Bernstein

• ▪Bernstein sets a $130 price target for Robinhood stock.

Perspective of Robinhood

• ▪Robinhood has achieved a $350 million annualized revenue run rate from prediction markets.

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