Sep 24, 2026
Prediction market platform Polymarket faced at least $10 million in fraudulent withdrawal attempts using stolen debit cards on its U.S. platform in February 2026. Payment processor Checkout.com reportedly rejected over 80% of deposits as fraudulent at one point, far exceeding typical industry rates.
South Korean authorities have booked 26 users of the crypto prediction market Polymarket on suspicion of illegal gambling involving 17.6 billion won ($12.7 million), with 18 cases already referred to prosecutors. Police identified the users through public blockchain transaction records.
Federal regulators have launched at least three previously unreported investigations into suspicious trading activity on Polymarket, including trades related to Biden pardons, Iran war predictions, and potential insider trading at Google. A cluster of accounts also won big on companies audited by KPMG.
The European Securities and Markets Authority issued a statement warning that major prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi lack the required authorization to operate in the EU, raising questions about their access to European users.
ESMA warned that major prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi lack required authorization to serve EU users, stating several countries are investigating their operations and raising insider trading concerns.
NBA superstar LeBron James announced a partnership with prediction market platform Polymarket on September 5, 2026, becoming the company's first individual athlete partner. The collaboration, teased in a video posted to social media, focuses on sports-related prediction markets with a full campaign reveal scheduled for the following week.
New Jersey became the first state to petition the US Supreme Court to rule on how prediction markets should be regulated, asking whether states can classify platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket as gambling. The petition follows a two-year legal battle.
1789 Capital, where Donald Trump Jr. serves as a partner, is leading a $1 billion funding round for prediction market Polymarket at a $21 billion valuation, with the firm contributing approximately $300 million.
Intercontinental Exchange, parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, is weighing further investment in prediction market platform Polymarket's upcoming funding round, which would value the company at more than $20 billion. ICE has already committed up to $2 billion in equity to Polymarket.
More than 150 wallets on Polymarket may have traded on inside US military information, according to new research, while a soldier who participated in a raid that captured Maduro faces charges for trading on the platform. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan revealed the company employs a former FBI officer to monitor traders full-time.
South Korea's communications regulator has ordered internet providers to block access to Polymarket, ruling that the crypto-based prediction market violates Korean gambling laws despite its decentralized settlement structure. The country joins more than 30 jurisdictions restricting access to the platform.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued new guidance warning prediction markets about incentives programs, while New York City Council Speaker Julie Menin launched a probe into platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket over alleged predatory marketing tactics targeting young traders. The investigations focus on promotional practices including cash vouchers, reward points, and influencer marketing.
The New York City Council has launched a probe into four major prediction market platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi, over allegations of using false, deceptive, or abusive marketing tactics that target young people. Council Speaker Julie Menin accused the platforms of predatory marketing practices to exploit young traders.
The New York City Council has launched a probe into four major prediction market platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi, over allegations of using false, deceptive, or abusive marketing tactics that target young people. Council Speaker Julie Menin accused the platforms of predatory marketing practices to exploit young traders.
The New York City Council launched an investigation into four prediction market platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, examining alleged 'false, deceptive, or abusive marketing tactics' targeting younger people. The probe creates a new regulatory front for the booming prediction market industry.
Researchers discovered 821 accounts that exploited Polymarket's single-price settlement mechanism to manipulate bitcoin prices in the final seconds before contract settlement, profiting $8.2 million. The prediction market has now replaced snapshot pricing with time-weighted average prices (TWAP) for short-dated crypto markets.
Prediction market platform Polymarket is replacing single-price snapshots with time-weighted average prices (TWAP) for settling short-duration crypto markets after traders exploited brief price manipulation windows to drain funds. The platform is offering $1M in rewards as part of the upgrade.
Prediction market platform Polymarket is in talks to raise approximately $1 billion at a valuation exceeding $20 billion, more than double its $9 billion valuation from October 2025. The fundraising comes months after the company closed an earlier round with investment from hedge fund D.E. Shaw & Co.
Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket recorded a combined $50.59 billion in trading volume during July 2026, setting a new monthly record driven by strong interest in FIFA World Cup betting markets and sports contracts.
Binance.US CEO Stephen Gregory announced the exchange will apply for a CFTC Designated Contract Market license next month to launch prediction markets, joining competitors Gemini, Coinbase, Robinhood, Kalshi and Polymarket in the space.
A federal judge granted a preliminary injunction Monday blocking Minnesota from enforcing a new law that would have made it the first state to ban prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. The ruling came days before the law was set to take effect, with the judge finding it likely conflicts with the Commodity Exchange Act.
Polymarket announced it will legally challenge France's decision to block access to its website nationwide, arguing the regulator wrongly treated an information source as illegal gambling despite trading already being disabled since November 2024.
Researchers at Stanford University and Singapore Management University found that Polymarket's five-minute Bitcoin prediction markets create incentives for traders to manipulate spot prices around settlement times, with evidence suggesting coordinated price manipulation.
Polymarket's affiliated entity filed with the National Futures Association on July 3 to offer margin trading in the US, though activation still requires CFTC approval. The move would allow users to open positions with a fraction of capital required upfront.
Wall Street Journal investigation found Polymarket paid college-age creators to stage fake winning bets on copycat websites, with roughly $1.9 million in fabricated wagers shown across social media to fuel viral growth.
Bitget has announced two major initiatives in June 2026: a World Cup prediction market partnership with Polymarket through Bitget Wallet reaching 90 million users, and its annual Anti-Scam Month security campaign aimed at combating $442 billion in annual multi-asset fraud losses.
Polymarket's chief marketing officer Matthew Modabber reportedly used his personal PayPal account to send at least $350,000 to content creators including Nick Shirley and Riley Gaines who promoted the prediction market platform without disclosing the payments. The allegations emerge as the company faces separate regulatory scrutiny and cuts ties with George Santos.
Prediction market platform Polymarket engaged blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis to monitor trading activity in real-time for insider trading and market manipulation as it seeks $15 billion valuation and CFTC approval for U.S. relaunch.
Crypto exchange Gemini obtained a DCO license from the CFTC, allowing it to act as an in-house clearinghouse for derivatives and prediction markets, positioning it to compete with Kalshi and Polymarket.
Brazil's Finance Ministry blocked 28 betting platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi, citing investor protection concerns and rising gambling addiction. Finance Minister Dario Durigan announced the sweeping ban affecting major prediction market operators.
Wisconsin Department of Justice filed lawsuit against five prediction market platforms, alleging their sports event contracts violate state gambling laws, citing platform language as evidence of gambling rather than investing.
Federal prosecutors arrested Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke for allegedly using confidential military intelligence to place over $400,000 in bets on Polymarket regarding Venezuela operations, including the capture of Nicolás Maduro. The soldier allegedly participated in the raid himself and attempted to conceal his betting activity.
Senator Bernie Moreno warned at a Washington event that the CLARITY Act must clear Congress by end of May or risk being shelved until 2030. His statement moved Polymarket odds of 2026 passage from 38% to 46%.
Bernstein analysts forecast prediction market volumes will hit $1 trillion by 2030, identifying Robinhood and Coinbase as key distribution platforms. The firm sees 'asymmetric upside' for Robinhood with a $130 price target, noting sports betting as entry point rather than endgame.
Following BIP-361's publication, Polymarket odds for "Will Satoshi Nakamoto move any Bitcoin in 2026?" climbed to 9.3%, up from 4.5% at the start of the year, drawing over $2.4 million in trading volume. Analysts noted the muted overall response suggests traders still view BIP-361 as a governance discussion rather than an imminent catalyst, but the doubling of odds signals growing market unease around Satoshi's estimated 1.1 million BTC.
Polymarket revealed plans for a complete exchange upgrade including a new trading engine, order book system, and native stablecoin backed by Circle's USDC. The overhaul will roll out over 2-3 weeks as the platform prepares for US expansion.
Prediction markets on Polymarket show 63-86% probability of US forces entering Iran by April 30, 2026, following contradictory signals from President Trump as his stated deadline for resolving the Iran conflict approaches.
Polymarket pulled prediction markets related to Iranian hostage rescue operations and a missing US pilot after facing widespread criticism over ethical concerns. The platform cited 'integrity standards' but did not specify which rules were violated, drawing scrutiny over inconsistent policy enforcement.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed lawsuits against Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction markets under the Commodity Exchange Act. The suits challenge state cease-and-desist orders against prediction market operators.
NYSE parent company ICE has completed a $600 million direct cash investment in prediction market platform Polymarket, bringing its total commitment to nearly $2 billion. The investment comes as prediction markets have surged past $20 billion in monthly volume, driven by geopolitics and macroeconomic event trading.