Prediction market platform Polymarket is replacing single-price snapshots with time-weighted average prices (TWAP) for settling short-duration crypto markets after traders exploited brief price manipulation windows to drain funds. The platform is offering $1M in rewards as part of the upgrade.
Prediction market platform Polymarket is in talks to raise approximately $1 billion at a valuation exceeding $20 billion, more than double its $9 billion valuation from October 2025. The fundraising comes months after the company closed an earlier round with investment from hedge fund D.E. Shaw & Co.
Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket recorded a combined $50.59 billion in trading volume during July 2026, setting a new monthly record driven by strong interest in FIFA World Cup betting markets and sports contracts.
Binance.US CEO Stephen Gregory announced the exchange will apply for a CFTC Designated Contract Market license next month to launch prediction markets, joining competitors Gemini, Coinbase, Robinhood, Kalshi and Polymarket in the space.
A federal judge granted a preliminary injunction Monday blocking Minnesota from enforcing a new law that would have made it the first state to ban prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. The ruling came days before the law was set to take effect, with the judge finding it likely conflicts with the Commodity Exchange Act.
Polymarket announced it will legally challenge France's decision to block access to its website nationwide, arguing the regulator wrongly treated an information source as illegal gambling despite trading already being disabled since November 2024.
Researchers at Stanford University and Singapore Management University found that Polymarket's five-minute Bitcoin prediction markets create incentives for traders to manipulate spot prices around settlement times, with evidence suggesting coordinated price manipulation.
Polymarket's affiliated entity filed with the National Futures Association on July 3 to offer margin trading in the US, though activation still requires CFTC approval. The move would allow users to open positions with a fraction of capital required upfront.
Wall Street Journal investigation found Polymarket paid college-age creators to stage fake winning bets on copycat websites, with roughly $1.9 million in fabricated wagers shown across social media to fuel viral growth.
Bitget has announced two major initiatives in June 2026: a World Cup prediction market partnership with Polymarket through Bitget Wallet reaching 90 million users, and its annual Anti-Scam Month security campaign aimed at combating $442 billion in annual multi-asset fraud losses.
Polymarket's chief marketing officer Matthew Modabber reportedly used his personal PayPal account to send at least $350,000 to content creators including Nick Shirley and Riley Gaines who promoted the prediction market platform without disclosing the payments. The allegations emerge as the company faces separate regulatory scrutiny and cuts ties with George Santos.
Prediction market platform Polymarket engaged blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis to monitor trading activity in real-time for insider trading and market manipulation as it seeks $15 billion valuation and CFTC approval for U.S. relaunch.
Crypto exchange Gemini obtained a DCO license from the CFTC, allowing it to act as an in-house clearinghouse for derivatives and prediction markets, positioning it to compete with Kalshi and Polymarket.
Brazil's Finance Ministry blocked 28 betting platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi, citing investor protection concerns and rising gambling addiction. Finance Minister Dario Durigan announced the sweeping ban affecting major prediction market operators.
Wisconsin Department of Justice filed lawsuit against five prediction market platforms, alleging their sports event contracts violate state gambling laws, citing platform language as evidence of gambling rather than investing.
Federal prosecutors arrested Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke for allegedly using confidential military intelligence to place over $400,000 in bets on Polymarket regarding Venezuela operations, including the capture of Nicolás Maduro. The soldier allegedly participated in the raid himself and attempted to conceal his betting activity.
Senator Bernie Moreno warned at a Washington event that the CLARITY Act must clear Congress by end of May or risk being shelved until 2030. His statement moved Polymarket odds of 2026 passage from 38% to 46%.
Bernstein analysts forecast prediction market volumes will hit $1 trillion by 2030, identifying Robinhood and Coinbase as key distribution platforms. The firm sees 'asymmetric upside' for Robinhood with a $130 price target, noting sports betting as entry point rather than endgame.
Following BIP-361's publication, Polymarket odds for "Will Satoshi Nakamoto move any Bitcoin in 2026?" climbed to 9.3%, up from 4.5% at the start of the year, drawing over $2.4 million in trading volume. Analysts noted the muted overall response suggests traders still view BIP-361 as a governance discussion rather than an imminent catalyst, but the doubling of odds signals growing market unease around Satoshi's estimated 1.1 million BTC.
Polymarket revealed plans for a complete exchange upgrade including a new trading engine, order book system, and native stablecoin backed by Circle's USDC. The overhaul will roll out over 2-3 weeks as the platform prepares for US expansion.
Prediction markets on Polymarket show 63-86% probability of US forces entering Iran by April 30, 2026, following contradictory signals from President Trump as his stated deadline for resolving the Iran conflict approaches.
Polymarket pulled prediction markets related to Iranian hostage rescue operations and a missing US pilot after facing widespread criticism over ethical concerns. The platform cited 'integrity standards' but did not specify which rules were violated, drawing scrutiny over inconsistent policy enforcement.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed lawsuits against Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction markets under the Commodity Exchange Act. The suits challenge state cease-and-desist orders against prediction market operators.
NYSE parent company ICE has completed a $600 million direct cash investment in prediction market platform Polymarket, bringing its total commitment to nearly $2 billion. The investment comes as prediction markets have surged past $20 billion in monthly volume, driven by geopolitics and macroeconomic event trading.
