Kalshi adds 3 million users during FIFA World Cup

Prediction market Kalshi added 3 million users during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with its share of US sports-betting volume surging to an estimated 27%. Fueled by aggressive marketing and regulatory advantages over traditional sportsbooks, Kalshi's growth poses a competitive threat to incumbents like DraftKings and FanDuel, whose stocks have slumped as they launch their own, less successful, competing products.

Kalshi World Cup growth

• ▪Kalshi added three million new users during the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
• ▪More than $1.2 billion was traded on Kalshi's contract for the World Cup winner, a record for a single market on the platform.
• ▪During the World Cup, Kalshi's phone app had more daily users than the apps for the two largest US online sports-gambling companies, DraftKings and FanDuel.

Prediction market competitive threat

• ▪The stocks of DraftKings and FanDuel's parent company, Flutter Entertainment PLC, slumped as the tournament went on and are down more than 25% on the year.
• ▪An analyst at Bernstein said the growth of prediction markets has "put feet to the fire for these traditional sportsbooks."
• ▪Prediction market activity was estimated to be around 27% of all legal US sports-betting volume during the World Cup, up from 9% at the start of the year.

Regulatory advantages

• ▪Federal regulators permit prediction markets to serve customers in states where sports gambling is illegal.
• ▪Prediction markets can accept customers aged 18 and over, whereas sports gambling products are off limits to people under 21.
• ▪Sports event contracts on prediction markets are caught in a dispute between the federal government and several states, which argue they function as sports betting.

Product similarities to gambling

• ▪The World Cup underscored how sports have become the single largest growth driver for the prediction market industry.
• ▪Fast-growing wagers on prediction markets included "combos," a version of the parlay bets that are highly lucrative for traditional sportsbooks.

Sportsbook response

• ▪In response to the competition, traditional gambling companies have launched their own prediction market products.
• ▪FanDuel's stand-alone prediction market app has so far gained little traction, according to Apptopia data.
• ▪A FanDuel spokesperson said the World Cup generated record interest, with the company's top 10 soccer games by handle all occurring during the tournament.

Post-tournament sustainability

• ▪Kalshi faces the challenge of retaining its new users after the World Cup, as trading volume typically drops after major events.
• ▪After the Super Bowl, Kalshi successfully bounced back and continued to grow, demonstrating the benefit of offering a wide array of betting events.

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