One week before the 2026 midterm elections, a PBS News/NPR/Marist poll shows Democrats holding an 8-point lead over Republicans among likely voters (52% to 44%) on the generic congressional ballot. Disapproval of President Donald Trump stands at 59%, serving as a primary driver for voters, with 44% framing their ballot as a vote against him. While Democrats hold a significant enthusiasm advantage and early voting edge, inflation and personal economic strain remain top voter concerns heading into Election Day.
Generic ballot and election expectations
- ▪Among registered voters in the PBS News/NPR/Marist survey conducted October 19–20, 2026, Democrats held a 10-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot
- ▪In the PBS News/NPR/Marist poll published October 27, 2026, independent likely voters backed Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans by 13 percentage points (52% to 39%)
- ▪A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll conducted October 19–20, 2026 found that likely voters favor Democratic candidates over Republicans 52% to 44% on the generic congressional ballot one week before the 2026 midterm elections
- ▪In the October 2026 PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, 51% of likely voters expected the Democratic candidate to win their local congressional district race, compared to 46% who expected the Republican candidate to win
Trump approval and referendum impact
- ▪Forty-four percent of likely voters in the PBS News/NPR/Marist poll said their midterm vote for Congress was a vote against President Donald Trump, compared to 21% who called it a vote for him
- ▪Marist Institute director Lee Miringoff noted that tariffs, the Iran war, the general economy, and rising gas prices were key factors depressing President Donald Trump's approval ratings in October 2026
- ▪Among independent voters in the PBS News/NPR/Marist October 2026 poll, 44% characterized their midterm congressional vote as a vote against President Donald Trump, while 12% said it was a vote for him
- ▪In the PBS News/NPR/Marist poll conducted October 19–20, 2026, 40% of likely voters approved of President Donald Trump's job performance, while 59% disapproved, including 53% who strongly disapproved
Voter enthusiasm and demographic breakdown
- ▪Overall voter interest remained strong one week before the 2026 midterms, with 84% of likely voters expressing enthusiasm about voting and 59% saying they were very enthusiastic
- ▪In the PBS News/NPR/Marist poll conducted Oct. 19-20, 2026, 71% of Democratic likely voters reported being very enthusiastic about voting in the 2026 midterms, compared with 61% of Republicans and 48% of independents
- ▪Likely voters under 45 favored Democrats over Republicans by 22 percentage points in the PBS News/NPR/Marist poll conducted Oct. 19-20, 2026, but only 42% in that age group reported being very enthusiastic about voting
Early voting turnout and methods
- ▪According to University of Florida Election Lab data cited on October 27, 2026, over 30 million early ballots had been cast nationwide, including 15.1 million by mail and 15.5 million in person
- ▪Among the 21% of likely voters who had already cast their ballots before October 27, 2026, the PBS News/NPR/Marist poll conducted Oct. 19-20, 2026 showed Democrats leading Republicans 68% to 31%
- ▪Only 6% of Republican likely voters indicated they would vote by mail in the 2026 midterms, compared to 15% of Democrats and 15% of independents
Strategist assessments and seat ratings
- ▪In October 2026 alone, the Cook Political Report shifted its ratings for 47 U.S. House seats, with all changes favoring Democrats
- ▪Republican strategist Melik Abdul acknowledged in late October 2026 that the U.S. House of Representatives was out of reach for Republicans, though he expected the party to maintain Senate control
- ▪Democratic strategist Joel Payne stated in October 2026 that Republican ad spending in deep-red states like Kansas and Mississippi indicated GOP concern over holding congressional seats
Voter priorities and economic outlook
- ▪Likely Republican voters prioritized cost of living (31%), preserving democracy (23%), and immigration (20%), while Democratic voters placed preserving democracy first (43%) followed by cost of living (39%)
- ▪Cost of living emerged as the primary concern for 34% of likely voters in the PBS News/NPR/Marist poll conducted Oct. 19-20, 2026, followed closely by preserving democracy at 33% and immigration at 12%
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