The US government has launched multiple investigations into potential insider trading on the prediction market Polymarket. Internal Commodity Futures Trading Commission documents reveal probes into suspicious, highly profitable trading patterns involving former President Biden's pardons, Iran geopolitical events, and Google search rankings. Separately, federal authorities are preparing charges against a KPMG employee after a cluster of accounts won near-perfect bets on earnings of KPMG-audited companies.
CFTC Polymarket insider trading probes
- ▪The Commodity Futures Trading Commission launched at least three previously unreported investigations into potential insider trading on Polymarket event contracts, according to documents obtained by WIRED.
- ▪Commodity Futures Trading Commission chairman Michael Selig approved an order in early May 2026 allowing the enforcement division to launch a private investigation into potential insider trading on Polymarket contracts related to pardons issued by former president Joseph Biden.
Iran contract suspicious trades
- ▪A network of suspicious Polymarket accounts reportedly made $2.4 million on Iran-related trades with a 98 percent win rate, as reported by 60 Minutes.
- ▪In late May 2026, Commodity Futures Trading Commission chairman Michael Selig approved an investigation order targeting 'Iran event contracts' on Polymarket.
Google employee investigation
- ▪The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Google-themed contract investigation is separate from the ongoing case against Michele Spagnuolo, a former Google engineer accused of insider trading.
- ▪In July 2026, Commodity Futures Trading Commission chairman Michael Selig authorized an investigation into suspected insider trading on Google-themed Polymarket event contracts.
- ▪The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's investigation into Google-themed contracts focuses on additional individuals who may have engaged in insider trading related to Google's 2025 Year in Search Ranking, running parallel to a Southern District of New York probe.
KPMG earnings betting pattern
- ▪Federal authorities are preparing to bring charges against a KPMG employee over alleged insider trading on Polymarket, following a blockchain analysis by forensics firm Bubblemaps.
- ▪A cluster of Polymarket accounts earned approximately $22,000 through dozens of near-perfect bets on the quarterly earnings of 18 companies audited by KPMG, including Wells Fargo, Home Depot, and DoorDash.
Prediction market regulatory enforcement
- ▪The Commodity Futures Trading Commission fined former US representative George Santos $35,000, and prediction market Kalshi fined him over $71,000 and issued a lifetime ban, for market manipulation regarding a contract about his attendance at the 2026 State of the Union address.
- ▪The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is reportedly investigating Polymarket itself, which launched a US-regulated version in late 2025 and was recently valued at $21 billion following a funding round led by 1789 Capital.
Debatable claims
- ▪The CFTC is failing to proactively monitor prediction markets
- ▪The US should ban prediction markets to prevent insider trading
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