Mixed assessments emerge on Ukraine war progress as Russia advances slowly in Donetsk

While Russia continues a slow, grinding infantry infiltration campaign to encircle Donetsk strongholds like Kostyantynivka, experts argue its progress claims are exaggerated. Meanwhile, Ukraine is successfully raising the cost of the war by executing deep drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, including a major Moscow oil refinery, and isolating occupied Crimea. These military successes, alongside diplomatic boosts from Donald Trump and European allies, have revived hopes for Kyiv, though analysts warn of severe escalation risks as Russia faces mounting economic strain and fuel crises.

Ukrainian drone strikes

• ▪Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy instructed intelligence and military services to act pre-emptively against facilities Russia uses to expand its war effort
• ▪Ukraine launched a drone strike on Gazprom's Moscow Refinery, causing an explosion and blowing the lid off an oil storage tank

Russian advances in Donetsk

• ▪The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian claims of capturing eastern Kostyantynivka are exaggerated, with the area remaining a contested gray zone
• ▪Russia is continuing efforts to encircle and capture the key Donetsk region cities of Kostyantynivka and Lyman

Ukraine diplomatic victories

• ▪The election of Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar removed a major obstacle to Ukraine's integration into the European Union
• ▪United States President Donald Trump stated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is doing pretty well and holding his own in the war

Russian economic pressures

• ▪Swedish intelligence alleged that Russia is manipulating economic data and that its true inflation rate could be as high as 15% rather than the officially reported 5.6%
• ▪The number of bankruptcies among small and medium-sized enterprises in Russia has been on the rise

Escalation risks

• ▪Russia's territorial agenda in the Donbas is limited to the remaining northwestern corner of Donetsk Oblast, which could take up to 12 months to fully capture
• ▪Analysts warn that Ukraine's deep-strike successes and efforts to raise the conflict's cost for Russia risk triggering further military escalation

Crimea fuel crisis

• ▪Ukrainian attacks on a main power substation knocked out electricity in Sevastopol, the largest city in Russian-occupied Crimea
• ▪Russian authorities suspended fuel supplies to the public in occupied Crimea following persistent Ukrainian drone and missile attacks