Hormuz tensions leave tankers waiting

Hundreds of oil and LNG tankers are anchored near the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran prompted threats from Iran's Revolutionary Guard to close the waterway that handles one-fifth of the world's oil supply. Major shipping companies including Maersk, MSC Group, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, COSCO and Emirates SkyCargo have halted bookings through the region, while an unmanned boat attack in the Gulf of Oman on Monday killed one crew member and forced evacuation of 21 others. Insurance brokers predict premiums could rise 50-100% for vessels in the area, with ships forced to reroute around Africa's Cape of Good Hope causing weeks of delays that threaten just-in-time supply chains for automotive, electronics, and pharmaceutical industries. The disruptions risk pushing U.S. inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target (currently at 2.4% as of January 2026) and could trigger stagflation if elevated oil prices and shipping costs persist.

Impact on global supply chains and just-in-time logistics

• ▪Last summer's flare-up between the U.S. and Iran led to a brief spike in crude prices to about $80 a barrel before they quickly stabilized
• ▪More than 80% of goods are transported by sea according to the World Bank

Rising insurance costs and risks to shipping crews

• ▪Marcus Baker expects the cost of insurance could increase as much as 100% due to rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz region
• ▪The insurance broker Marsh predicted insurance prices could rise as much as 50% in the coming days

Economic consequences including inflation and stagflation risks

• ▪U.S. inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target as of January 2026
• ▪The Federal Reserve has been trying to bring inflation down to its 2% target