Kalshi in advanced talks to raise $1 billion at $40 billion valuation

Kalshi is in advanced talks to raise approximately $1 billion in a new funding round that would value the CFTC-regulated prediction market at roughly $40 billion. Tiger Global, Dragoneer, Sequoia Capital, and Wellington Management are in discussions to participate in the round, which is expected to be Kalshi's final private raise before a potential IPO as early as 2027. Driven by sports contracts and institutional volume, Kalshi's valuation has surged from $11 billion in December 2025 to $22 billion in May 2026, and now toward $40 billion.

Kalshi $1 billion funding round

• ▪Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management are in discussions to lead Kalshi's $1 billion funding round
• ▪Kalshi is in advanced discussions to raise approximately $1 billion in a new funding round that would value the prediction market platform at roughly $40 billion
• ▪Tiger Global Management and Dragoneer Investment Group are in talks to participate as prospective investors in Kalshi's $1 billion funding round

Prediction market trading volume growth

• ▪Kalshi's annualized trading volume tripled to $178 billion over a six-month period leading up to May 2026, up from $52 billion
• ▪Kalshi commands more than 90% of the United States prediction market activity
• ▪Kalshi's institutional trading volume surged 800% over a six-month period leading up to May 2026, and its annualized revenue run-rate exceeded $1.5 billion

Sports contracts revenue concentration

• ▪Sports-related contracts account for approximately 65% to 70% of Kalshi's total trading volume
• ▪Kalshi operates with a gross margin of approximately 90%, and its revenue run-rate surpassed $2 billion in mid-2026

CFTC regulatory oversight framework

• ▪Kalshi operates as a regulated contract market overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, allowing institutional players to participate within compliance frameworks
• ▪The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is reviewing trading in Kalshi's ether perpetual futures before deciding whether to open an enforcement case, amid allegations of wash trading which Kalshi denies

Valuation growth trajectory

• ▪Kalshi's valuation has risen from $5 billion in October 2025, to $11 billion in December 2025, and to $22 billion in May 2026
• ▪If Kalshi's $1 billion funding round in talks with Tiger Global and Dragoneer closes at a $40 billion valuation, Kalshi will have raised more than $3 billion in private capital in under a year

Debatable claims

• ▪Prediction markets are a legitimate asset class for institutional hedging
• ▪Sports event contracts on prediction markets should be regulated as sports betting