US Soldier Charged with Insider Trading on Polymarket Over Maduro Capture

Active-duty US soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, faces federal charges for allegedly using classified military information to profit over $400,000 on Polymarket by betting on the January 3, 2026 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Van Dyke, based at Fort Bragg and involved in planning Operation Absolute Resolve, placed escalating bets totaling tens of thousands of dollars between December 26, 2025 and January 2, 2026 on scenarios including US invasion of Venezuela and Maduro's removal from office. The operation resulted in Maduro's capture and dozens of Venezuelan and Cuban deaths. Van Dyke faces three commodities fraud counts (10 years each), one wire fraud count (20 years), and one unlawful monetary transaction count, with prosecutors alleging he used a VPN to access Polymarket and transferred proceeds to a foreign cryptocurrency vault before requesting account deletion on January 6, 2026.

Soldier's alleged insider trading scheme using classified military intelligence

• ▪Gannon Ken Van Dyke used the prediction market platform Polymarket 13 times to bet on topics including whether US forces would invade Venezuela and when Nicolas Maduro would be removed from office
• ▪On December 30, 2025, Gannon Ken Van Dyke placed roughly $1,323 in bets on Nicolas Maduro being out of office before the end of January
• ▪Gannon Ken Van Dyke profited more than $400,000 from betting on the operation against Nicolas Maduro
• ▪Around December 27, 2025, Gannon Ken Van Dyke bought $96 worth of bets on the prospect that US forces would be in Venezuela by January 31
• ▪On January 1, 2026, Gannon Ken Van Dyke gambled $6,100 on scenarios including Nicolas Maduro being ousted, the US invading Venezuela, and Donald Trump invoking war powers against Venezuela
• ▪The US military operation against Venezuela was confirmed to the public at 4:21am US Eastern Time on January 3, 2026
• ▪Gannon Ken Van Dyke transferred much of his proceeds to a foreign cryptocurrency vault shortly after his $400,000 windfall
• ▪The US military operation against Venezuela on January 3, 2026, culminated in the abduction and imprisonment of Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores
• ▪Gannon Ken Van Dyke created a Polymarket account around December 26, 2025, using a virtual private network to place his location abroad
• ▪On January 2, 2026, Gannon Ken Van Dyke placed bets worth $6,150, $6,000, $7,050 and $7,215 each
• ▪The US launched a military operation against Venezuela in the early hours of January 3, 2026
• ▪By January 6, 2026, Gannon Ken Van Dyke contacted Polymarket to delete his account

Expansion of prediction markets under Trump administration

• ▪Donald Trump Jr was named a strategic adviser to the prediction market Kalshi in January 2025
• ▪In May 2025, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission dropped its legal fight against Kalshi
• ▪Donald Trump was sworn in for his second term shortly after January 2025

Concerns about insider trading and conflicts of interest in prediction markets

• ▪Sizeable bets made ahead of the US attack on Venezuela on January 3, 2026, raised red flags

Perspective of Polymarket

• ▪Polymarket detected suspicious betting patterns ahead of the January 3, 2026 US attack on Venezuela that raised red flags