Kalshi and Polymarket Eye Crypto Perpetual Futures Trading Expansion

Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are expanding into crypto perpetual futures trading, with Polymarket announcing Tuesday that users will soon trade perpetuals with at least 10x leverage on assets including Bitcoin, stocks like Nvidia and Coinbase, and commodities like gold and silver. Kalshi plans to offer perpetual futures that give U.S. customers access to derivative contracts without expiration dates using funding rates for around-the-clock trading. Both platforms can operate under the CFTC's Designated Contract Markets framework, though it remains unclear whether Polymarket will launch on its U.S. platform, international platform, or both. The expansion comes as New York filed lawsuits against Coinbase and Gemini over alleged gambling law violations, while competing platforms like Hyperliquid (which facilitated $148 billion in derivatives volume last month) move into prediction markets, creating sector convergence.

Polymarket and Kalshi's Expansion into Perpetual Futures Trading

• ▪Polymarket announced on Tuesday that users will soon be able to trade perpetual futures on its platform
• ▪Polymarket's perpetual futures trading will include stocks of companies like Nvidia and Coinbase
• ▪Kalshi's perpetual futures would give U.S. customers access to derivative contracts that don't feature an expiration date
• ▪Polymarket published a video indicating that users will be able to speculate on asset prices with at least 10x leverage
• ▪Polymarket's perpetual futures trading will include digital assets like Bitcoin
• ▪Kalshi plans to roll out crypto trading to users, according to a report
• ▪Kalshi plans to support perpetual futures on its platform, according to The Information
• ▪Polymarket's perpetual futures trading will include real-world assets like gold and silver
• ▪Kalshi's perpetual futures would use a funding rate to trade around the clock

Regulatory Framework and Platform Accessibility

• ▪New York's lawsuits against Coinbase and Gemini argued that sports- and entertainment-related wagers were allowed in violation of local gambling laws
• ▪Polymarket and Kalshi are able to provide access to futures and options under the CFTC's framework for Designated Contract Markets
• ▪The state of New York filed lawsuits against Coinbase and Gemini on Tuesday

Broader Market Trends in Derivatives and Prediction Markets

• ▪Hyperliquid announced in February that it planned to support outcome trading on its platform
• ▪Coinbase began offering futures contracts with five-year durations a week after Kraken's debut in July
• ▪CME Group indicated earlier this year that it would debut event contracts in collaboration with FanDuel
• ▪Kraken debuted CME-based futures contracts for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the U.S. in July of the previous year
• ▪Hyperliquid's outcome trading would allow for the creation of prediction markets and option-like instruments on its platform
• ▪Hyperliquid facilitated $148 billion in derivatives volume last month, according to a Dune dashboard

Perspective of Prediction market platforms (Kalshi and Polymarket)

• ▪Polymarket's perpetual futures offering will allow users to speculate on asset prices with at least 10x leverage

Perspective of Competing crypto derivatives platforms

• ▪CME Group indicated earlier this year that it would debut event contracts in collaboration with FanDuel