Brazil Bans Prediction Market Platforms Including Polymarket and Kalshi Citing Investor Protection

Brazil's Finance Ministry blocked 28 betting platforms including prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi on Thursday, with both sites inaccessible by Friday afternoon according to Reuters. Finance Minister Dario Durigan stated the platforms violated betting regulations approved by Congress and are not legal in Brazil, while the Banco Central do Brasil issued a resolution prohibiting derivatives contracts based on sports events, virtual gaming, political outcomes, and other non-economic benchmarks. Officials cited investor protection, market integrity, and rising gambling addiction concerns, with Chief of Staff Miriam Belchior emphasizing protection of family income. The action follows similar restrictions in Portugal in January 2025 and lawsuits filed Friday by Wisconsin against Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Crypto.com alleging violations of commercial gambling bans.

Brazil's Ban on Prediction Market Platforms

• ▪Banco Central do Brasil issued a resolution prohibiting derivatives contracts based on sports events
• ▪Polymarket was inaccessible in Brazil as of Friday afternoon, according to Reuters
• ▪Brazil's Finance Ministry blocked access to prediction market platforms on Thursday
• ▪Brazil blocked access to Polymarket as part of the prediction market platform ban

Regulatory Justifications and Investor Protection Concerns

• ▪Brazil Finance Minister Dario Durigan said blocking prediction market platforms would protect citizens' savings amid government efforts to reduce debt levels
• ▪Brazil Finance Minister Dario Durigan said prediction market platforms violated betting regulations approved by the Brazilian Congress
• ▪Brazil Chief of Staff Miriam Belchior said the prediction market ban aims to protect income and prevent financial losses
• ▪Brazil Finance Minister Dario Durigan said prediction markets are not legal or regulated in Brazil
• ▪Banco Central do Brasil cited risks to investor protections as justification for prohibiting derivatives contracts on non-economic benchmarks
• ▪Brazil Chief of Staff Miriam Belchior said the prediction market ban aims to reduce families' exposure to unsafe practices

Global Regulatory Pressure on Prediction Markets

• ▪Wisconsin filed lawsuits against Kalshi on Friday alleging sports event contracts violate the state's commercial gambling ban
• ▪Multiple U.S. states have taken action against prediction market platforms
• ▪Portugal restricted Polymarket access in January 2025

Perspective of Brazil Finance Ministry and government officials

• ▪Brazil Chief of Staff Miriam Belchior framed the prediction market ban as protecting family income from unsafe financial practices
• ▪Brazil Finance Minister Dario Durigan characterized prediction market platforms as threats to citizens' savings during government debt reduction efforts

Perspective of Prediction market platforms (Polymarket and Kalshi)

• ▪Polymarket and Kalshi operate as prediction market platforms that allow users to trade contracts on future events
• ▪Prediction market platforms face regulatory scrutiny in multiple jurisdictions including Brazil, Portugal, and several U.S. states

Perspective of U.S. state regulators

• ▪Wisconsin regulators allege that sports event contracts offered by prediction market platforms constitute illegal commercial gambling