Polymarket opened an internal investigation into suspicious prediction market trades placed shortly before New York Times/Siena College polls were released. Vanderbilt University researchers revealed an anonymous wallet deposited over $2 million on October 30, 2026, and made bets on Senate races in Nebraska and Michigan, netting over $257,000 in profits after the poll results went public. Competitor Kalshi declined to comment.
Investigation of suspicious prediction market trades
- ▪Vanderbilt University researchers identified suspicious bets placed shortly before two New York Times/Siena College political polls were released
- ▪Vanderbilt University researchers traced the $2 million deposit and transaction timing on-chain, but could not identify the person controlling the anonymous cryptocurrency wallet
Bets placed on Senate races before poll releases
- ▪On October 30, 2026, around 5:30 p.m. ET, an anonymous cryptocurrency wallet received a deposit of over $2 million before executing bets on Polymarket
- ▪A trader bet approximately $191,277 on Polymarket that Nebraska Republican Senator Pete Ricketts would win re-election
- ▪The same prediction market trader placed over $622,000 on the Democratic nominee in the Michigan Senate race on Polymarket
Military insider trading on Polymarket
- ▪In April 2026, U.S. Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was charged by the Department of Justice for allegedly earning over $400,000 on a prediction market using nonpublic military information regarding Venezuela
- ▪The Department of Justice alleged U.S. Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke bought Polymarket shares on Nicolás Maduro's removal after participating in Operation Absolute Resolve in Caracas
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