Polymarket odds of Satoshi moving Bitcoin double to 9.3% following BIP-361 publication

Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 361, published by Jameson Lopp and other cryptographers, proposes forcing bitcoin holders to migrate coins to quantum-resistant addresses or face permanent network freezing, with Phase A blocking new transactions to vulnerable addresses three years after activation and Phase B invalidating old signatures after five years. The proposal targets approximately 6.7 million BTC in vulnerable addresses, including Satoshi Nakamoto's estimated 1.1 million BTC, following a Google report warning that quantum computers could compromise Bitcoin sooner than expected, potentially by 2029. Following BIP-361's publication, Polymarket odds for Satoshi moving Bitcoin in 2026 doubled from 4.5% to 9.3%, drawing over $2.4 million in trading volume, though analysts note the muted response suggests traders view it as a governance discussion rather than imminent catalyst. The proposal has sparked controversy, with critics calling it authoritarian and contrary to Bitcoin's promise of permissionless control, while developers defend it as necessary protection against quantum threats.

BIP-361 proposal to freeze quantum-vulnerable Bitcoin addresses

• ▪BIP-361 Phase C is a proposed rescue mechanism, still under research, where holders with frozen wallets could potentially prove ownership using a zero-knowledge proof to recover coins frozen by Phase B
• ▪BIP-361 builds on the proposal put forward in February under BIP-360, which introduced a soft fork designed to enable a new transaction type called pay-to-Merkle-root (P2MR)
• ▪Pay-to-Merkle-root (P2MR) borrows from Bitcoin's Taproot (P2TR) framework but strips out the key-based spending path
• ▪BIP-361 Phase B kicks in five years after activation and will render old style signatures (ECDSA and Schnorr) completely invalid such that attempts to spend from quantum-vulnerable wallets will be rejected by the network
• ▪Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP)-361 was updated in Bitcoin's official proposal repository on a Tuesday with the title 'Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset.'
• ▪BIP-361 Phase A kicks in three years after potential activation, blocking anyone from sending new bitcoin to old-style, quantum-vulnerable addresses

Quantum computing threat to Bitcoin's cryptographic security

• ▪Polymarket odds of Satoshi moving Bitcoin doubled to 9.3% following BIP-361 publication
• ▪As of March, the sum of all BTC in vulnerable addresses was approximately 6.7 million BTC, according to a Google study
• ▪Some observers cited 2029 as the quantum deadline for bitcoin following the Google report
• ▪Bitcoin uses ECDSA for legacy and SegWit v0 spends, while Taproot key-path spends use BIP-340 Schnorr
• ▪A recently released Google report warned that a sufficiently powerful quantum machine could require significantly less firepower to compromise the Bitcoin blockchain than initially estimated

Community opposition to the coin freezing mechanism

• ▪One X user criticized BIP-361 as reeking of central planning with deadlines, behavior coercion, and forced migration
• ▪BIP-361 developers described the proposal as a defensive measure to defend the Bitcoin ecosystem against malicious actors who would prefer to do nothing and allow destruction of both value and trust
• ▪One X user criticized the BIP-361 quantum proposal as highly authoritarian and confiscatory, stating there is no good rationale for forcing the upgrade and rendering old spends invalid

Perspective of BIP-361 developers including Jameson Lopp

• ▪BIP-361 developers described the proposal as a defensive measure to defend the Bitcoin ecosystem against malicious actors who would prefer to do nothing and allow destruction of both value and trust

Perspective of Bitcoin sovereignty advocates

• ▪One X user criticized the BIP-361 quantum proposal as highly authoritarian and confiscatory, stating there is no good rationale for forcing the upgrade and rendering old spends invalid
• ▪One X user criticized BIP-361 as reeking of central planning with deadlines, behavior coercion, and forced migration

Perspective of Polymarket traders

• ▪Analysts noted the muted overall response to BIP-361 suggests traders still view it as a governance discussion rather than an imminent catalyst
• ▪The doubling of Polymarket odds to 9.3% signals growing market unease around Satoshi's estimated 1.1 million BTC
• ▪The Polymarket bet on Satoshi Nakamoto moving Bitcoin in 2026 drew over $2.4 million in trading volume following BIP-361 publication